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Saturday February 04, 2012


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  • QUESTION OF THE WEEK

    Survey results are meant for general information only, and are not based on recognised statistical methods.





    Borrowing dilemma: Rates have never been lower but choice between fixed or variable remains tough

    While the terms have never been sweeter, choosing either a fixed rate or variable mortgage today could make buyers bitter if they make the wrong choice.

    "I personally think it's got to do with a person's risk tolerance," said

    Starr Webb, a Kamloops mortgage broker with Invis who is seeing more people refinancing and a flush of new buyers in the market as confidence in the economy returns.

    "We've got people who always get a variable rate and others who always go with a fixed rate."

    Webb said first-time buyers rarely opt for a variable rate mortgage, despite statistics that show it is a better deal for most borrowers.

    "You're just out of school and in a lower wage job. Why would you risk a lower rate? You know it will only go up."

    That rate, however, has remained at a tantalizing 2.25 per cent — a record low and a rate that is unlikely to edge down. All the risk is on the upside, but broker Frank Bava said he's seeing a flip of the traditional choices for young and more experienced buyers.

    "It's mixed. I've seen a change to variable rate as the interest rate gap got a little wider. Younger people are particularly going for variable. There's a difference of almost two per cent (spread of rates)."

    Today the best five-year rate is slightly more than four per cent. While

    rock bottom by historical standards, it is nearly double the variable rate.

    Bava, who operates Frank Bava Financial Solutions downtown, said buyers who lived through the ’80s in particular often opt for the guarantee.

    "They lived through it. They're going more with fixed (rates)."

    BMO released a report this month showing over the past 30 years variable rate mortgages have saved borrowers money 82 per cent of the time.

    But the report noted two times, in the ‘70s and ’80s when fixed rates were more beneficial. Those periods are similar to today, with interest rates bottoming out and having nowhere to go but up.

    "Short-term rates are at extreme lows and pressure is likely to build for higher rates in the year ahead," said deputy chief economist Doug Porter in the report.

    "The question of whether to lock in to a longer-term fixed mortgage rate or stay in a variable rate has become an increasingly complex and important issue."

    Despite the bank's findings, a Vancouver broker who writes a blog

    Canadianmortgagetrends.com noted the bank used posted rates for its comparison. Those rates are typically discounted as much as 1.5 per cent.

    Under those numbers, Robert McLidster re-analyzed the bank's numbers and found the results inconclusive. Each type, variable or fixed, was better about half the time.

    McLidster and other brokers contacted for this story also noted variable rates, while low due to the Bank of Canada lowering rates, are not what they used to be when considering there is no longer a discount.

    "Will we get back to prime minus one per cent? Probably not any time soon," he said.

    But that discount to the variable rate was widely available until the credit crunch hit late last year. It increased at one point to nearly one per cent above the prime rate and only recently declined to reach prime again.

    Despite the amount of money at stake for picking the right, or wrong,

    mortgage, broker Mary-Ellen Coleman said most homeowners don't lose sleep over a percentage point or two. They're happy as long as they're making payments and their house is worth more than what they paid for it.

    "The majority of people, 75 per cent, aren't concerned with what's

    happening."

    Coleman has dealt in mortgages since 1984. She bases her recommendations on the kinds of questions clients are asking.

    She also noted the rate question is not so sensitive in Kamloops as other markets in B.C.

    "Buying a house in Kamloops is a lot easier than in Vancouver or even Vernon because the prices are much lower."

    She also noted that even if purchasers opt for a 2.25 per cent variable rate, they have to qualify for a higher rate so they are not in financial peril when rates eventually rise.

    "You approve them on a three-year fixed rate. To qualify we use a 4.6 per cent Bank of Canada three-year term rate."

    Another important factor is penalties are higher to escape a fixed-term mortgage.

    Only a year after the crisis in confidence, all three local brokers said the market is robust and buying still looks attractive based on today's housing prices and interest rates, particularly in the Kamloops market.

    "There's definitely first-time buyers out there," Bava said. "Whether it's 2.25 per cent or four per cent it's close to what a rent payment is. As long as you've got a down payment you can own for the equivalent of rent."


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