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Tuesday May 22, 2012


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  • QUESTION OF THE WEEK

    Survey results are meant for general information only, and are not based on recognised statistical methods.





    Strategic voting initiative targets Kamloops

    Fuelled by an anyone-but-Harper sentiment, a strategic voting initiative called Catch 22 is taking aim at six B.C. ridings, including Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo.

    The online campaign team, comprised of members from across the country, is endorsing New Democrat Michael Crawford as the only candidate capable of defeating MP Cathy McLeod.

    "It's aimed unabashedly at overturning the Harper government and getting another government in power," said Murray Dobbin, a B.C. Catch 22 co-ordinator. "It's saying we have to focus on that goal rather than, as you might wish, on your personal political preferences."

    Online tactical initiatives have cropped up in recent elections, but this one is believed to be the first aimed at unseating a local candidate.

    Catch 22 sprouted from the seeds of frustration over Prime Minister Stephen Harper's prorogation of Parliament last year.

    "There was an outpouring of frustration with 60 demonstrations involving about 25,000 people," Dobbin explained. "Out of those demonstrations came this organization."

    The idea is to concentrate on swing ridings, where second-place finishers came closest to winning in 2008. That makes it a little surprising Catch 22 has included Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, since the last general election wasn't exactly a squeaker here, said Terry Kading, TRU political scientist.

    There was a 3,000-vote spread between McLeod and Crawford, but the New Democrat has gradually built his support since his first campaign in 2006. On the other hand, McLeod can campaign on the basis of her representation over the past two and a half years in office.

    "There is a sense, over time, that Michael Crawford has been out there much more visibly in every campaign," Kading said.

    At the same time, the theory of strategic voting is based on a major assumption, Kading said.

    "This one's always been a tricky one to evaluate. That anyone-but-Harper dynamic is out there, but it really plays to an informed segment of the electorate which, overall, wouldn't be representative (of the whole). It's assuming a lot about the knowledge people have about the different parties"

    While Canada is a highly educated society, voters are not necessarily informed enough to vote strategically, he noted.

    Tactical voting could become more of a factor where there is strong sentiment among a significant percentage of voters. Dobbin sees that as a key motivator in the May 2 vote. The past two years have only fanned the flames.

    "Almost to prove the point, Prime Minister Harper dealt with the contempt of Parliament charge with contempt — 'You win some, you lose some.' "

    In the first five days of the election campaign, there were more visits to www.catch22campaign.ca than in the previous year. The strategic voting trend reflects how poorly the current system of first-past-the-post reflects reality, Dobbin added.

    "It's a pox on all the parties. None of the parties, in my view, has taken this up."

    There are no other Interior ridings targeted by Catch 22. Three are in the Lower Mainland (Surrey North, North Van and Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission) aside from Saanich-Gulf Islands and Vancouver Island North, where there was a spread between Tory and NDP candidates similar in number to the one here.


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