Saturday May 25, 2013


subscription options


Print Edition»

  • Includes free
    digital edition
  • Digital Edition»

  • Print format with
    enhanced features!
  • QUESTION OF THE WEEK

    Survey results are meant for general information only, and are not based on recognised statistical methods.





    Polling can’t pick winner

    It’s hard to know what to think about the accuracy of an Angus Reid poll showing a neck-and-neck horse race between the Liberals and the NDP in B.C.’s Interior.

    A couple of options jump to mind. First, it’s possible the poll is entirely accurate and the two city constituencies — and maybe a couple of the ones from other nearby areas, we don’t know what Angus Reid considers to be the Interior — will be the stage for a political drama unlike no other in B.C. in May, when provincial voters go to the polls.

    The other option is the poll is entirely wrong  and the local political race reflects more closely the provincial race that has the Liberals well back of the NDP. Or maybe the provincial polling is wrong as well — remember the polls in the recent Alberta provincial elections — and the Liberals have the quiet support of enough people to return as B.C.’s governing party.

    The only way we could possibly know which version is correct is to stage an immediate election in B.C. and compare the poll against the only results that matter — votes in the ballot box.

    That’s impossible, of course, which renders the Angus Reid poll as meaningless as a winner predicted by a gypsy soothsayer using tarot cards or tea leaves.

    Polls have long been a contentious issue when it comes to elections. Some question whether political polling should even be allowed, suggesting polls skew results by affecting public opinion.

    The charge is more serious if we think there is a possibility the results of polls don’t accurately reflect the actual nature of public opinion.

    The fact is, right or wrong, polls are nothing more than an interesting (potential) snapshot of opinion in a given instant of time, one that quickly fades into history. They provide the betting odds for the horse race, so to speak, but can’t predict the winner.

    This poll likely offers little insight about what will happen here in May, several weeks down the road.

    The election, locally and provincially, will be decided by the political records of those who seek election (or re-election) and by the words and actions of the candidates themselves, which really, is the way it should be.


    We Say editorials represent the viewpoint of The Daily News and are written by editor Robert Koopmans, city editor Tracy Gilchrist, news editor Mike Cornell or associate news editors Dan Spark and Mark Rogers.

    Comments


    NOTE: To post a comment in the new commenting system you must have an account with at least one of the following services: Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, Yahoo, OpenID. You may then login using your account credentials for that service. If you do not already have an account you may register a new profile with Disqus by first clicking the "Post as" button and then the link: "Don't have one? Register a new profile".

    The Kamloops Daily News welcomes your opinions and comments. We do not allow personal attacks, offensive language or unsubstantiated allegations. We reserve the right to edit comments for length, style, legality and taste and reproduce them in print, electronic or otherwise. For further information, please contact the editor or publisher, or see our Terms and Conditions.

    blog comments powered by Disqus



    Advertising | About Us | Contact Us | Sitemap / RSS   Glacier Community Media: www.glaciermedia.ca    © Copyright 2013 Glacier Community Media | User Agreement & Privacy Policy

    LOG IN



    Lost your password?